Spring Thaw

The weather is finally starting to turn, and economic data is returning to a more trustworthy state.  It’s early however and first quarter earnings season is just beginning as well.  Expectations are relatively low, in large part due to the weather, but there is increased interest in forward guidance which could be the catalyst for the next move in the market.  With corporate confidence improving and some fiscal concerns receding, we expect a relatively optimistic, yet cautious, tone to prevail. On the economic front, both versions of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) surveys showed improvement.  The Manufacturing Index rose while new orders encouragingly increased.  The Non-Manufacturing Index, representing the larger service side of our economy, showed a nice gain with the employment component having the largest gain.  Auto sales appear to be rebounding from a weather induced pause, indicating that consumer demand is still decent and confidence is improving.   The Leading Economic Indicators Index (LEI) rose in March, the most in four months, and above consensus estimates. Six of its ten components made positive contributions indicating widespread strength among Read on! →