Navigating the Game Plan
The Carolina Panthers are a winning football team. Yes, you heard that right, and as we draw closer to Thanksgiving, they may have a chance to make a run at the playoffs. There have been many close games over the last weeks, but none seem to switch the tides more than their stunning upset of the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago.
The contest in the dubbed Frozen Tundra seemed to be decided by a kick that sailed just inside the uprights as time expired; however, there was a crucial decision made with 11 minutes left on the clock. The Packers had the ball well inside Panther territory, yet they were met with a 4th down and 8 yards to go. Most fans in Green Bay would have elected to take the 3-point field goal down 7 points with plenty of time left to stop the Panther offense. However, head coach Matt Lafleur thought he had a play that would get his team the yards needed for a first down. The ball was snapped and the Panther’s defense sniffed out the play causing a turnover on downs. After the game, Lafleur faced the media. He fielded questions about the decision and why he seemingly made the wrong call. “I wanted to go down swinging,” he said.
As fans funneled out of the stadium, what lingered in many minds was why such a seasoned coach would make the incorrect statistical play call? These complex risk reward decisions extend well beyond that cold Sunday in Wisconsin.
As recently highlighted in the Wall Street Journal, over 100 coaches around the country in the college game are trusting in a man who has never put a helmet or headset on himself.[1]
Michael McRoberts is a bioengineer who found himself yelling at the TV thinking coaches, like Lafleur, were making the wrong call in critical moments. After years of data gathering, he found not only that he was right, but that coaches often don’t stick to sound statistics under pressure. Maybe it’s the pressure of facing the media, but time and time again, experienced play callers deviated from the logical play. Micheal’s solution, “The Game Book”, does not have Xs and Os or fancy trick plays, but rather the statistical clarity coaches need when emotions run high and crowd cheers are deafening. He, and the mathematical theory, helps them step back from the noise and focus on what the situation truly demands.
In today’s financial ecosystem, what can we take away from Michael’s playbook?
In short, it’s easy to get swept up in headlines and trends. The best investors understand the importance of preparation, discipline, and the ability to adapt. They have a clear plan, but also the awareness to adjust when conditions change. When buzz words like bubbles and tariffs start to float, staying the course isn’t the opposite of refusing to listen. It should remind us to keep sight of our long-term goals and make thoughtful decisions along the way.
Each finish line of financial success has its own unique look. To give a client their best chance to cross it, we march to the conservative order of diversification. In other words, we can allow the noise to fluctuate securities but not sink portfolios. Keeping Michael in mind, we aim to find the balance in our playing style. Taking statistical risks within some asset classes while others keep us anchored. In maintaining appropriate tailormade risk levels, we strive to avoid situations where we must “go down swinging”.
Investing, like football, is unpredictable. While many football fans, like me, fail in keeping emotions at bay, we in the office know success favors those who plan, stay flexible, and find clarity in times of uncertainty. If you ever have questions or want to talk about your game plan, please feel free to call or email us!
[1] Bachman, R. (2025, October 17). The Suburban Dad Who Calls Plays for 100 College Football Teams.The Wall Street Journal.